The next major war may not begin with tanks crossing borders or missiles arcing across continents. It is increasingly plausible that it could begin silently and invisibly in orbit.
Space has become the nervous system of modern military and economic power. Long before open conflict erupts, hostile actions in space are already shaping the strategic environment. Orbital near-misses, dazzling lasers, electronic jamming, cyber intrusion, shadowing and close-proximity operations are testing the boundaries of acceptable behaviour. Much of this activity remains below the threshold of armed attack. Attribution is difficult, escalation ambiguous, and intent often deniable. Yet the risks are increasing.
Follow Defence Watch on LinkedIN
The contours of competition are clear. The United States, China, Russia, and India have all demonstrated anti-satellite capabilities, removing any doubt that objects in low Earth orbit can be targeted. Dual-use satellites capable of manoeuvring, inspecting, or potentially interfering with others blur the distinction between peaceful activity and military positioning. What was once a sanctuary is now contested.
Space is no longer an adjunct to military power; it is its foundation.
Surveillance satellites provide persistent intelligence. Signals collection platforms monitor communications and radar emissions. Navigation systems enable precision strike. Secure satellite communications connect dispersed forces. Weather satellites inform operational planning. Early-warning spacecraft detect missile launches and underpin nuclear deterrence. Without these services, modern armed forces lose coordination, accuracy, and strategic awareness.
The dependence extends far beyond the battlefield. Financial systems rely on precise timing signals from space. Civil aviation and maritime trade depend on satellite navigation. Telecommunications networks, energy grids, and logistics chains all draw on space-enabled infrastructure. The integration is so complete that disruption in orbit would generate cascading terrestrial effects.
If conflict were to extend into space, the consequences would be strategically destabilising. Anti-satellite strikes risk generating debris fields that threaten military and civilian spacecraft alike. Electronic warfare could disrupt navigation and communications across entire regions. Cyberattacks on satellite ground systems could paralyse civilian services. In the worst case, cascading debris in key orbits could degrade access for years, harming the global economy and undermining collective security.
Follow Defence Watch on Whatsapp channel for all the Defence Manufacturing, Tech, Global Affairs & Military Updates
Satellites are therefore strategic infrastructure. Assured access to space, and the ability to restore capability rapidly if it is degraded, is not a technological luxury but a national security requirement.
Traditional launch models are not optimised for resilience under pressure. Large vertical rockets launched from fixed spaceports require lengthy manufacturing cycles, complex integration, extensive range coordination, favourable weather and last minute liquid refuelling. Launch windows are often scheduled months in advance. Infrastructure is concentrated and geographically predictable.
In peacetime this model is efficient. In crisis it may prove brittle.
If critical satellites were disabled in the opening phase of a conflict, replacing them quickly through conventional launch could be difficult. Strategic paralysis can emerge not from the loss of territory, but from the loss of information and connectivity.
Three complementary approaches can strengthen space resilience.
First, distributed constellations of smaller satellites reduce single-point failure. The loss of a few spacecrafts does not eliminate an entire capability.
Second, on-orbit servicing and refuelling can extend mission life and preserve scarce assets.
Third, responsive launch capability allows rapid replenishment and adaptation.
It is in this third domain, responsive access to orbit, that innovation is accelerating.
Horizontal launch systems offer a different operational model. Rather than lifting a rocket vertically from a fixed pad, an aircraft carries a rocket to altitude before release. This reduces dependence on large ground infrastructure, offers flexibility in launch location and can compress response timelines.
One example is the system led by Astraius, a responsive, reliable, and affordable horizontal air launch service for small to mid-sized satellites, supported by YAVA, a systems engineering and consultancy for governments and critical infrastructure operators, which involves deploying a solid-fuelled rocket from a modified C-17 aircraft. This enables long-duration storage of launch vehicles, rapid preparation, and reduced exposure to fixed-site vulnerabilities. By leveraging existing airbases, they introduce geographic dispersion and operational unpredictability.
Horizontal launches are not a panacea. Payload capacity is generally less than heavy vertical rockets and the cost per kilogram to orbit can be higher. Regulatory, integration, and airspace coordination challenges are often easier. But the strategic advantages of deploying small satellites, particularly tactical or replacement assets, of responsiveness, mobility, and distributed basing are significant.
For India, these considerations are particularly acute.
India is a continental-scale nation with contested land borders, expansive coastlines, and a central position in the Indian Ocean. Its security environment spans high-altitude terrain, dense maritime traffic, and increasingly complex air and cyber domains. At the same time, its economy is rapidly digitising and integrating into global supply chains.
Space-enabled capabilities are already central to India’s defence posture and civilian infrastructure. Border surveillance, maritime domain awareness, and secure communications rely on orbital assets. Navigation services underpin aviation, shipping, and logistics. Financial systems depend on precise timing. As these dependencies deepen, so too does vulnerability.
India has demonstrated impressive space capability over decades, building reliable launch vehicles and executing complex missions at competitive cost. But as space becomes more congested and contested, assured access to orbit cannot rely solely on traditional vertical launch from fixed locations.
Distributed and responsive launch options would enhance strategic depth. Leveraging India’s network of airbases across diverse geography could enable rapid deployment of small satellites to restore communications, navigation, or surveillance capabilities degraded by hostile action. Such flexibility would complicate adversary planning and strengthen deterrence by denial.
The strategic objective is not to militarise space, but to ensure continuity of service in an environment where disruption is increasingly plausible. Resilience, through redundancy, repair, and rapid replacement, is the foundation of stability.
Future conflicts, if they occur, are likely to involve space from their earliest stages. The ability to observe, communicate, navigate, and deter will depend on orbital systems. Nations that can protect, replenish, and adapt their space infrastructure under pressure will retain operational coherence. Those that cannot may find themselves strategically blinded and disconnected at critical moments.
Space is not replacing the domains of land, sea, and air. But it is the high ground that shapes them all. For India, building resilient, diversified, and responsive access to orbit, including exploration of horizontal launch capabilities such as those being developed by Astraius with YAVA, should be viewed as an investment in sovereignty, deterrence, and long-term stability in an increasingly contested domain.
Disclaimer: This is an Op-ed article. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own. Defence Watch does not endorse nor support views, opinions or conclusions drawn in this post and we are not responsible or liable for any content within the article or for any damage or loss caused by and in connection to it.
About the author
Andrew Turner is the CEO of Saibre Capital and the Strategy Director of Astraius. He is an investor, advisor and director in emerging tech start-up businesses in space, AI, quantum. He has served as a combat pilot for 4 decades in the Royal Air Force, surviving 19 operational tours with service in the Élysée Palace, White House, Pentagon and White House.
About YAVA
YAVA is a systems engineering and consultancy firm working with governments and critical infrastructure operators to design, implement, and manage technology platforms that underpin essential national infrastructure.
(Defence Watch– India’s Defence News centre that places the spotlight on Defence Manufacturing, Defence Technology, Strategy and Military affairs is on Twitter. Follow us here and stay updated.)