COAS Gen Manoj Pande
COAS Gen Manoj Pande

All you need to know about Black Swan that Army Chief talked about

A black swan event is a high-impact event that is difficult to predict. It describes surprises of an especially momentous and nasty type.

New Delhi: Army Chief General Manoj Pande recently called upon the force to be always prepared for ‘black swan’ events and “expect the unexpected” even as he identified technology as the new area for strategic competition among nations.

Making this assertion in an address at the Defence Services Staff College, Wellington, he highlighted the weaponisation of technology, especially its extension across various domains – from information to supply chains.

Now, for our readers, we will describe about black swan.

A black swan event is a high-impact event that is difficult to predict. It describes surprises of an especially momentous and nasty type.

The term became popular when renowned mathematician Nicholas Nassim Taleb wrote a book of the same title in 2007.

According to Taleb, black swan events have three characteristics: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.

In recent years, the concept of black swan events has gained currency in political, military, and financial contexts.

Black Swan events often reveal vulnerabilities in structures that have been previously thought to be strong or resilient.

They reveal weaknesses in hazard control practices and spotlight the need for extra preparedness and resilience.

The COVID-19 pandemic is one such example of Black Swan event. This international health disaster had full-size repercussions on global economies and markets in 2020.The dot-com bubble – In 2000, the valuation of many web-based businesses plummeted after a duration of fast growth.

(Defence Watch– India’s Defence News centre that places the spotlight on Defence Manufacturing, Defence Technology, Strategy and Military affairs is on Twitter. Follow us here and stay updated.)

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