Bangladesh turmoil & its security implications on India

New Delhi: Amidst the ongoing violence in Bangladesh, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has briefed the political party leaders in Parliament House, revealing that India has assured help to former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who arrived in India on Monday evening.

Jaishankar highlighted that properties and households belonging to minorities were targeted by protestors. “Sheikh Hasina is in a state of shock, and the government is giving her time to recover before discussing her future plans,” he mentioned, news agency PTI reported citing sources. The External Affairs Minister also made a statement on the issue in the Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha.

The instability in Bangladesh has profound security implications for our Northeast region which is a strategically sensitive area.

The ongoing turmoil has made the sensitive Siliguri Corridor, or “Chicken’s Neck”—the crucial narrow stretch connecting the mainland to the northeastern states, vulnerable to external threats and internal strife and any disruption here could isolate the region.

The possible impact can also be the increased infiltration across the border in West Bengal by minority Hindus who are now under attack in the country. This may result into communal tensions and lead to demographic shifts that impact local politics and security.

India has also to ensure that the neighbouring country does not drift into the China’s sphere of influence. For its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in South Asia, China sees Bangladesh as a key participant of the project.

China has offered to supply advanced military equipment to Bangladesh. This move is an effort to counterbalance India’s influence and secure strategic military alliances in South Asia.

As India will be engaged to tackle Dhaka diplomatically and other possible ways, chances are that Pakistan with the help of China increase the terror activities in J&K. Pakistan also sees this opportunity to settle the score of 1971 war. It will also try to internationalise the Kashmir issue.

Overall this turmoil has come as a litmus test for the diplomatic skills of the Modi dispensation and it must balance strategic patience with proactive engagement, avoiding any direct military intervention while strengthening the security apparatus across the border with Bangladesh that stretches over four thousand kilometers.

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